NBA Advanced Analytics Update: March 9, 2026

We’re deep into the 2025-2026 NBA season, and the advanced metrics are painting a clearer picture of who’s truly excelling and who might be flying under the radar. As always, the raw box score only tells part of the story. Let’s dive into the numbers shaping the league as we head into the final stretch.

Trending Metrics: Pace and Shot Quality

The league-wide trend of increased pace continues, though we’re seeing a slight plateau compared to the sharp jumps of the past few seasons. The average possessions per 48 minutes currently sits at 100.2, a marginal increase from last year’s 99.8. Teams are still looking to get out and run, but defenses have adapted, leading to slightly fewer truly fast-break opportunities. The Golden State Warriors, for example, continue to lead the league in pace at 104.5, a proof of their transition offense and quick decision-making.

Shot quality, measured by Expected Effective Field Goal Percentage (xEFG%), is becoming an even more significant differentiator. This metric accounts for shot location, defender proximity, and shot type to estimate the likelihood of a shot going in. The Boston Celtics lead the league with an xEFG% of 57.8%, indicating they are consistently generating high-value shots. Their offensive efficiency, currently 119.3 points per 100 possessions, directly reflects this. Conversely, teams like the Charlotte Hornets, with an xEFG% of 51.2%, are often settling for tougher looks, contributing to their lower offensive output.

Offensive Efficiency Leaders

When we talk about offensive efficiency, we’re looking at Offensive Rating (ORTG), which measures points scored per 100 possessions. The Denver Nuggets, behind Nikola Jokic’s incredible playmaking and scoring, maintain their position at the top with an ORTG of 121.5. Their ability to generate open looks and convert at a high rate is simply unmatched. Jokic’s individual Offensive Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) is an astounding +9.8, showcasing his singular impact on every offensive possession.

The Milwaukee Bucks are right behind them at 120.7, largely powered by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s relentless attack and Damian Lillard’s perimeter threat. Their effective field goal percentage (EFG%) of 58.1% is second only to the Nuggets, illustrating their effective shot selection and conversion. The Phoenix Suns have seen a significant jump in their ORTG over the past month, now sitting at 119.9, as their "Big Three" have finally found a consistent rhythm together, particularly in late-game situations.

Defensive Efficiency Standouts

On the defensive end, Defensive Rating (DRTG) measures points allowed per 100 possessions. The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to be the league's defensive anchor, boasting a DRTG of 107.1. Rudy Gobert’s presence in the paint is a massive factor, as opponents shoot just 53.2% within five feet of the rim against them, the lowest mark in the league. Their defensive rebound percentage of 76.5% also prevents critical second-chance points. For more insights, see our coverage on Cade Cunningham's Historic March: 42 Points at MSG and MVP Push.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are making a strong case for the second-best defense at 108.3. Their perimeter defense, anchored by Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, has improved, and Evan Mobley continues to be a versatile defender capable of guarding multiple positions. The Oklahoma City Thunder, with their youthful athleticism and length, are also making noise on defense, holding opponents to a DRTG of 109.0. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s league-leading 2.5 steals per game contributes significantly to their disruptive defense.

Net Rating and True Playoff Contenders

Net Rating (NETRTG), the difference between ORTG and DRTG, often serves as the most accurate predictor of success. Unsurprisingly, the Denver Nuggets lead the league with a NETRTG of +14.4. Their balanced attack and solid defense make them the team to beat. For more insights, see our coverage on Basketball Analytics Week 19: Unpacking Key Performances.

The Milwaukee Bucks are second at +11.9, followed closely by the Boston Celtics at +11.0. These three teams have consistently shown elite performance on both ends of the floor. The Minnesota Timberwolves, despite their top-tier defense, have an offense that sometimes sputters, giving them a NETRTG of +8.5, still good for fourth in the league but highlighting areas for improvement.

Individual Advanced Metrics: Player Spotlights

Beyond the team metrics, individual advanced statistics continue to highlight exceptional performances. Nikola Jokic’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 32.1 leads the league, reflecting his all-around offensive dominance. His Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) of 7.2 is also miles ahead of the competition, demonstrating his immense value to the Nuggets.

Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to be a force, with a PER of 29.8 and a True Shooting Percentage (TS%) of 64.5%, showcasing his hyper-efficiency around the basket. Luka Doncic, despite the Dallas Mavericks’ inconsistent team performance, maintains an impressive PER of 28.5, carrying a huge offensive load for his team.

On the defensive end, Rudy Gobert’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) of +4.1 is the highest in the league, underlining his defensive impact. Evan Mobley of the Cavaliers is right behind him at +3.7, cementing his status as one of the league's premier young defenders.

We’re also seeing interesting trends in usage rate (USG%) and assist-to-turnover ratio. Tyrese Haliburton of the Indiana Pacers, with a USG% of 25.1% and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.3, is orchestrating one of the league’s most efficient offenses while minimizing mistakes. His ability to create for others without sacrificing possessions is a significant asset.

What's Next

As the playoffs approach, these advanced metrics will become even more telling. Teams that can maintain high efficiency on both ends, limit turnovers, and generate quality shots will be the ones making deep runs. The battle for playoff seeding will not just be about wins and losses, but about the underlying statistical health of each contender. We’ll continue to track these numbers weekly as the season leads to.