Look, for years, the box score was king. Points, rebounds, assists – that was the gospel. But the game’s gotten smarter, and so have the ways we measure it. These days, if you're not at least glancing at some of the advanced metrics, you're missing a huge part of the story. Think of it less as replacing the eye test and more as a powerful magnifying glass. We're talking about things like PER, Win Shares, VORP, BPM, RAPTOR, and EPM. They all try to boil down a player's impact into a single number, but they do it in different ways.
Let's start with **PER – Player Efficiency Rating**. This one was created by John Hollinger, and it’s meant to be an all-in-one rating of a player's per-minute production. It basically aggregates all a player's positive accomplishments (field goals, free throws, threes, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals) and subtracts negative ones (missed shots, turnovers, personal fouls). The league average is always 15.0. Anything above 20 is considered excellent, and 25+ is MVP-caliber. Last season, Nikola Jokic led the league with an insane 31.5 PER, showing just how dominant he was on a per-minute basis. Giannis Antetokounmpo was right there at 28.5, and LeBron James, even at 38, still posted a very respectable 23.9.
Next up, **Win Shares**. This metric attempts to divvy up credit for a team's wins to individual players. It's broken down into Offensive Win Shares (OWS) and Defensive Win Shares (DWS). A good starting player might accumulate 5-8 Win Shares in a season, while an MVP-level guy will often hit double digits. In the 2022-23 season, Jokic again topped the charts with 16.2 Win Shares, with Kevin Durant surprisingly high at 10.3, despite playing only 47 games. Giannis had 13.0 Win Shares, and LeBron finished with 7.9, a solid number for an aging star who missed 27 games.
Then there's **VORP – Value Over Replacement Player**. This one estimates a player's overall contribution to the team in terms of points above what a "replacement-level" player (think G-League call-up) would produce. It's scaled to approximate a player's value in a box-score-only model. A VORP of 2.0-3.0 is a borderline All-Star, and 4.0+ is MVP territory. Last season, Jokic’s VORP was a mind-boggling 8.8, miles ahead of anyone else. Joel Embiid was second at 6.8. Giannis posted a 6.7 VORP, and LeBron, despite his age, still put up a 4.9. That tells you he's still far more valuable than most players in the league.
**BPM – Box Plus/Minus** – is another box-score-based estimate of a player’s net impact per 100 possessions, relative to league average. It considers offensive and defensive contributions. A BPM of +5.0 or higher usually indicates an MVP candidate, while +2.0 to +4.0 is All-Star level. Unsurprisingly, Jokic led the league with an absurd +13.0 BPM in 2022-23, emphasizing his all-around impact. Giannis was excellent at +8.3, and LeBron was still a strong +6.7, proving he can still be a top-tier performer when on the court.
Now we're getting into the newer, more complex stuff. **RAPTOR** (Reliable Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings) is developed by FiveThirtyEight. It uses both play-by-play data and player tracking data (like how far players run, speed, etc.) to estimate a player's on-court impact, both offensively and defensively. It’s also per 100 possessions. A RAPTOR score of +5.0 is considered elite. For the 2022-23 season, Jokic was again the runaway leader with a +13.6 RAPTOR. Giannis was second at +7.6. LeBron's RAPTOR was +4.4, still very good, though not quite at the MVP level of the other two. My hot take? RAPTOR often undervalues older stars who conserve energy, which might explain LeBron's slightly lower mark here compared to some other metrics.
Finally, there's **EPM – Estimated Plus/Minus**. This metric, developed by Darin Paul, uses machine learning and a massive dataset of play-by-play and tracking data to estimate a player's impact per 100 possessions, adjusted for teammates, opponents, and context. It’s considered one of the most predictive and stable metrics available. An EPM of +5.0 is typically All-NBA level. In 2022-23, Jokic's EPM was an astronomical +9.0, truly in a league of his own. Giannis was strong at +6.4. LeBron's EPM stood at +4.6, which is still comfortably in the All-Star discussion.
Comparing the three titans – LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo – across these metrics reveals a clear picture from last season: Jokic was, statistically, the most dominant player in the NBA. His PER, Win Shares, VORP, BPM, RAPTOR, and EPM numbers were all league-leading, often by a significant margin. Giannis consistently placed second or third in most categories, showcasing his immense two-way impact. LeBron, while not topping any of these lists anymore, still puts up numbers that would make him the best player on most teams, especially considering he played only 55 games last season. His ability to still post a +4.9 VORP and +6.7 BPM at age 38 is simply absurd.
Here's the thing: these metrics aren't perfect. They have limitations, and they shouldn't replace watching the game. But they do offer a powerful, objective lens to evaluate performance. They confirm what our eyes tell us about Jokic's unprecedented all-around offensive brilliance and Giannis's relentless efficiency. What they also confirm is that LeBron, even in his twilight, remains one of the most impactful players to ever step on a court.
My bold prediction? Despite the numbers favoring Jokic, Giannis will win MVP this upcoming season if the Bucks finish as a top-two seed in the East.
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