# The Efficiency Revolution Just Hit a Wall—And It's Costing Teams Wins
The NBA's obsession with three-point volume finally found its kryptonite this week. Through games ending April 13, 2026, teams shooting above 40 attempts per game are posting a collective 47-51 record since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, squads in the 32-37 attempt range? They're 68-44.
Look, this isn't your grandfather's "live by the three, die by the three" lecture. The data's showing something weirder: diminishing returns kick in hard after attempt number 38. The Memphis Grizzlies learned this the painful way, dropping four straight while hoisting 43.8 threes per game at just 31.2%. Ja Morant's driving 18.4 times per contest, but when he kicks out, the math stops working.
## True Shooting Percentage Leaders Are Getting Younger
Chet Holmgren's running away with the efficiency crown at 68.7% TS. He's 23 years old and making the game look like a geometry problem everyone else failed. His shot diet: 4.2 threes per game at 42%, 6.8 rim attempts at 74%, and 5.1 free throws. Zero mid-range jumpers in his last nine games.
Victor Wembanyama sits second at 66.9% TS, but here's where it gets interesting—his assist rate jumped from 18.3% to 24.7% over the past three weeks. The Spurs are running more actions with Wemby as the screener, and defenses can't figure out whether to hedge, drop, or just pray. When he rolls, he's shooting 81% at the rim. When he pops, it's 39% from deep on 4.9 attempts.
Nikola Jokić rounds out the top three at 66.1%, which feels almost boring at this point. The man's posted a TS above 65% for six straight seasons. But his assist-to-usage ratio hit an all-time high this week: 42.3% assist rate with a 28.1% usage rate. Translation: he's using fewer possessions while creating more for others. That shouldn't be possible.
## The Box Plus-Minus Leaderboard Looks Broken
Luka Dončić's BPM currently sits at +12.8, which would be the fourth-highest single-season mark since the merger. The Mavericks are outscoring opponents by 18.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Without him? They're minus-3.4.
Thing is, Dallas ranks 23rd in pace when Luka plays. They're walking the ball up, running the shot clock down to 8 seconds, and still generating 1.21 points per possession. His on-ball gravity's so extreme that Kyrie Irving's getting wide-open threes on 41% of his attempts. Irving's shooting 47.2% on those looks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander checks in second at +11.4 BPM, and the Thunder's net rating with him on court (+16.9) suggests they're not just good—they're historically dominant. OKC's defensive rating when SGA plays: 103.8. That's Golden State 2016 territory. He's averaging 2.1 steals and 1.3 blocks while defending the opponent's best perimeter player 78% of possessions.
## Defensive Metrics Are Exposing the Lakers' Biggest Problem
Anthony Davis leads the league in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus at +4.2, but the Lakers rank 18th in defensive rating. How's that possible? The answer's in the tracking data: LA allows 1.31 points per possession when AD's off the floor for more than 90 seconds. They're getting torched in those minutes.
Real talk: the Lakers don't have a backup center who can protect the rim. Their second-unit defensive rating is 119.4—worst in the NBA by 3.1 points. Teams are shooting 68.2% at the rim against LA's bench. That's rec league numbers.
Rudy Gobert's second in DEPM at +3.8, and Minnesota's defensive rating (106.2) reflects his impact. But here's the controversial take: Gobert's playoff value is overrated. In the past three postseasons, teams have hunted him in pick-and-roll coverage 24.7 times per game. His defensive rating in those playoff runs: 114.6. That's a 8.4-point swing from his regular season mark.
## Usage Rate vs. Efficiency: The Giannis Paradox
Giannis Antetokounmpo's using 34.2% of Milwaukee's possessions—highest in the league—while maintaining 63.4% TS. That combination's only happened three times in NBA history, and Giannis owns two of them.
But the Bucks are 4-6 in their last ten. Why? His assist rate dropped from 32.1% to 24.8% as teams started blitzing him 18 feet from the basket. Milwaukee's three-point attempt rate fell from 44.2% to 38.7% in that stretch. When Giannis can't create for others, the offense becomes predictable.
Compare that to Jayson Tatum's 31.8% usage rate at 61.2% TS. Boston's 8-2 in their last ten because Tatum's assist rate (28.4%) stayed consistent. The Celtics generate 1.18 points per possession on Tatum passes versus 1.09 on Giannis passes.
## The Pace Revolution Nobody's Talking About
Indiana's running at 104.8 possessions per game—fastest since the 1990s—and they're 12-3 since April 1st. Tyrese Haliburton's averaging 11.8 assists in that span while the Pacers score 1.23 points per possession in transition. They're not just running, they're executing.
Here's what's wild: their half-court offense ranks 4th in efficiency despite playing at warp speed. Conventional wisdom says you can't sustain both. Indiana's proving that wrong by shooting 39.8% from three and 62.1% at the rim. When you're that efficient, pace becomes a weapon.
The Pelicans tried copying this blueprint and went 2-8. Their turnover rate spiked to 16.4%—you can't play fast and sloppy.
**Bold prediction:** Holmgren wins MVP within three seasons, and it won't be close. His efficiency metrics at age 23 are better than Jokić's at the same age, and OKC's building everything around his unique skill set. By 2028, we'll wonder why this was ever a debate.