Thursday's NBA Slate: Why Atlanta's Big Man is a Must-Play

Look, Thursday’s NBA schedule is a little light, just four games, but that doesn’t mean there aren't some juicy spots to exploit for your fantasy lineups. We’re talking about a night where individual matchups could really swing your week.

The marquee matchup has to be the Celtics visiting the Nuggets. Denver's Nikola Jokic has been an absolute machine, averaging 26.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists on the season. Boston, meanwhile, is still missing Kristaps Porzingis, which has forced Al Horford into more minutes at center. That’s a tough ask against the reigning MVP. In their last meeting back in January, Jokic dropped 34 points and 12 boards on the Celtics. Expect similar dominance.

Thing is, everyone knows Jokic is good. You’re not going to win your league by just plugging him in. The real value often comes from the less obvious plays. That brings me to Clint Capela. The Hawks center has been quietly putting up some solid numbers lately, especially on the glass. Over his last five games, Capela is averaging 11.2 points and 11.4 rebounds. Atlanta is hosting the Knicks, a team that, despite their recent winning ways, has been susceptible to opposing big men. Mitchell Robinson is still working his way back, and Isaiah Hartenstein, while solid, isn't a dominant rebounder. Capela had 13 points and 12 rebounds against the Knicks in their December matchup. He's primed for a double-double, maybe even a 15-and-15 night.

Moving west, the Suns are in Toronto. The Raptors are missing a lot of firepower with Scottie Barnes out indefinitely. Immanuel Quickley has been putting up good numbers since the trade, averaging 18.7 points and 6.6 assists in a Raptors uniform, but the overall team defense has suffered. Kevin Durant, fresh off a 35-point outing against the Sixers, should feast. Toronto’s defense ranks 24th in the league against small forwards. Durant is a lock for 30-plus points tonight.

Here’s the thing about the late game: Mavericks at Heat. Luka Doncic is on an incredible tear, averaging 37.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 11.0 assists over his last seven games. He’s carrying the Mavericks. Miami’s defense is usually stingy, but without Tyler Herro, their offensive firepower is limited, meaning more pressure on Jimmy Butler to score. The Mavs need this win, and Doncic will do everything in his power to get it. He put up a 29-point triple-double against the Heat back in January. Expect him to exceed that point total.

My hot take for the night? Forget the big names for a minute. The real sleeper pick is Aaron Gordon for the Nuggets. With all the focus on Jokic and Jamal Murray, Gordon often gets overlooked. He's been averaging 15.3 points and 6.7 rebounds over his last 10 games, and against a Boston team that will be focused on stopping Jokic, Gordon could easily put up 20 points and 8 rebounds. He’s going to be the beneficiary of all that defensive attention on the Joker.

Bold prediction: Capela finishes as a top-five fantasy center on Thursday's slate.