The Elusive 'Screen-Assist-Plus': Unpacking Defensive Gravity in Modern PnR
2026-03-13
In the evolving scene of NBA analytics, we're constantly seeking to dissect the detailed contributions that often escape traditional box scores. While the 'screen assist' has gained traction, recognizing the direct impact of a good screen leading to a score, it still falls short in capturing a screener's full gravitational pull on a defense. Today, we introduce a concept we're calling 'Screen-Assist-Plus' (SAP) – a metric designed to quantify the indirect, yet powerful, effect a screener has on creating offensive advantages through defensive manipulation.
Defining Screen-Assist-Plus: More Than Just a Direct Pass
SAP goes beyond the immediate assist. It measures instances where a screener, by the sheer threat they pose (either as a roller, short-roll playmaker, or pop threat), forces a defensive overreaction that subsequently opens up a different offensive opportunity. This could manifest as:
- A defender 'tagging' the roller too hard, leaving a weak-side shooter open.
- The PnR defender fighting over the screen so aggressively to prevent the roll, that the ball-handler gains an uncontested driving lane.
- A big man hedging out high, creating a temporary 4-on-3 advantage for the offense after the pass.
Essentially, SAP seeks to assign credit for the 'gravity' a screener creates, even if they don't directly touch the ball or receive a screen assist.
Case Study: Rudy Gobert's Understated Offensive Impact
Consider Rudy Gobert. While not known for his offensive prowess, his PnR rolling is incredibly effective due to his size and finishing ability. In the 2025-26 season, Gobert averages around 4.5 traditional screen assists per game. However, our preliminary SAP tracking suggests his influence is much higher. When Gobert screens for Anthony Edwards or Mike Conley, opposing centers are often forced into difficult choices. They must either commit to stopping Gobert's roll, often leading to a smaller defender being switched onto Edwards, or they attempt to 'split' the difference, which can open up shooting lanes for Karl-Anthony Towns or Jaden McDaniels.
For example, in a recent game against the Lakers (2026-02-28), Gobert set a high screen for Edwards. Anthony Davis, wary of Gobert's dive to the rim, took an extra step to 'tag' him, briefly leaving Towns open on the wing for an uncontested catch-and-shoot three-pointer. Gobert received no traditional assist, but his presence directly facilitated that high-percentage shot. Our SAP algorithm would credit Gobert for this sequence.
Domantas Sabonis: The Short-Roll Maestro and SAP
Domantas Sabonis presents a different flavor of SAP. While Gobert's gravity is often vertical (rim threat), Sabonis's is more horizontal and playmaking-oriented. When Sabonis sets a screen for De'Aaron Fox, the opposition often faces a predicament: commit to stopping Fox's drive, or prevent Sabonis from getting the ball in the short roll where he can make plays.
Against the Suns (2026-03-05), Sabonis screened for Fox. Jusuf Nurkic sagged back to contain Sabonis's potential short roll, but this allowed Fox to turn the corner and get into the paint, forcing Kevin Durant to help. Fox then kicked out to a wide-open Harrison Barnes in the corner for a three. Again, no direct assist for Sabonis, but his short-roll threat was the primary catalyst for the defensive collapse. This is a classic SAP instance, highlighting Sabonis's underappreciated playmaking from the interior.
Moving Forward with Screen-Assist-Plus
Developing SAP requires strong tracking of defensive rotations and shot quality after PnR actions. While still in its early stages of development, this metric has the potential to unlock a deeper understanding of offensive efficiency and the often-invisible contributions of players who excel at disrupting defensive schemes. By quantifying this 'defensive gravity,' we can better appreciate the complete impact of players like Gobert and Sabonis, moving beyond simplistic box scores to a more all-around view of their value.