Purdue Basketball 2025-26: Can the Boilermakers Win It All?
Purdue basketball is always good. They win the Big Ten, they dominate the regular season, and then they lose in the tournament. It's been the pattern for years. But this season feels different. Here's why — and whether they can finally break through in March.
Life after Zach Edey
Zach Edey was a two-time National Player of the Year. He was 7'4", unstoppable in the paint, and the entire Purdue offense ran through him. And then he graduated, went to the NBA, and left a massive hole in the middle.
The question everyone had was: can Purdue still be elite without Edey? The answer, so far, is yes. They're not playing the same style — they can't, because nobody else is 7'4" — but they've adapted. Matt Painter has shifted to a more perimeter-oriented offense, and it's working.
The new starting center is Trey Kaufman-Renn, a 6'9" forward who can stretch the floor and pass out of the post. He's not Edey, but he doesn't need to be. The offense is more balanced now, and that might actually be better for tournament success.
The backcourt is elite
Braden Smith is one of the best point guards in college basketball. He's averaging 12 points and 8 assists, and his decision-making is elite. He doesn't force anything, he takes care of the ball, and he makes everyone around him better. That's exactly what you need in March.
Fletcher Loyer is the shooting guard, and he's been lights-out from three. He's shooting 42% from deep on high volume, and defenses have to respect him. That spacing opens up everything else.
The backcourt is the strength of this team, and in the tournament, guard play matters more than anything else. Purdue has that covered.
The Big Ten is brutal
Purdue is battling for the Big Ten title with Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. The conference is as deep as it's been in years, and every game is a grind. That's good preparation for the tournament.
The problem with Purdue in past years was that they dominated weak schedules and then got punched in the mouth in March. This year, they're getting tested every week. They've already beaten Illinois twice, they split with Michigan State, and they've handled every team they're supposed to beat.
The Big Ten tournament is going to be a war, and whoever comes out of it will be battle-tested.
Matt Painter's system
Matt Painter is one of the best coaches in college basketball. His teams are always disciplined, they execute on offense, and they play smart defense. The problem is that his system is predictable, and in the tournament, teams can game-plan for it.
This year, Painter has been more willing to adjust. He's playing faster, he's using more ball screens, and he's giving his guards more freedom to create. That flexibility is new, and it's a good sign.
The other thing Painter has going for him is experience. He's been to the tournament 15 times. He knows what works and what doesn't. And after years of early exits, he's motivated to finally get over the hump.
The tournament concerns
Purdue is a 1-seed or 2-seed, which means they'll have a favorable path to the Sweet 16. But after that, it gets harder. Here are the concerns:
1. Three-point shooting variance: Purdue lives and dies by the three. When they're hot, they're unbeatable. When they're cold, they struggle to score. In a single-elimination tournament, one bad shooting night can end your season.
2. Lack of a go-to scorer: Braden Smith is great, but he's not a guy who can take over a game and get you 30 points. Purdue is balanced, which is good, but they don't have a closer. That can be a problem in tight tournament games.
3. Defensive versatility: Purdue's defense is solid, but they struggle against teams with elite athleticism. If they run into a team like Duke or Houston that can pressure the ball and get out in transition, it could be a problem.
Can they win it all?
Yes. But it's not a lock. Purdue has the talent, the coaching, and the experience. They're a legitimate Final Four contender. But they've been a Final Four contender before, and it hasn't worked out.
The difference this year is that they're not relying on one player. They're deeper, they're more versatile, and they're playing with confidence. If they can avoid a bad shooting night and stay healthy, they have as good a shot as anyone.
But this is college basketball. Anything can happen in March. Purdue fans have learned that the hard way.